Because of this difficulty, it is worth while to know a
second method of classification, one which is often of greater
practical service than the method already discussed in assisting the
arguer to determine what methods of reasoning are strong and what are
weak. A knowledge of this classification is also very helpful to one
who is searching for ways in which to generate proof. This method
considers proof from the standpoint of its use in practical argument;
it teaches not so much the different ways in which the mind may work,
as the ways in which it must work to arrive at a sound conclusion.
1. ARGUMENT FROM ANTECEDENT PROBABILITY.
_The process of reasoning from cause to effect is known as the
argument from antecedent probability._ Whenever a thinking man is
asked to believe a statement, he is much readier to accept it as true
if some reasonable _cause_ is assigned for the existence of the
fact that is being established. The argument from antecedent
probability supplies this cause. The reasoning may be from the past
toward the present, or from the present toward the future. If an
inspector condemns a bridge as unsafe, the question arises, "What has
made it so?" If some one prophesies a rise in the price of railroad
bonds, he is not likely to be believed unless he can show an adequate
cause for the increase. In itself, the establishment of a cause proves
nothing. A bridge may have been subjected to great strain and still be
unimpaired.
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